Tough Times

So the new Tory negative ad campaign extravaganza was recently released into the wild. It is an interesting time to be releasing expensive negative propaganda which seems to indicate there is a rather interesting thought process going on in the Tory War Room these last few days. (More surprising is that there is any thought process going on at all, really.)

I want to analyze what precipitated this and what must be behind it. First, these ads comes shortly after Ignatieff was officially knighted the new Liberal leader. Of course, their first objective is to beat his reputation into a pulp (as they managed to do to his predecessor) but maybe they didn't realize he had already won by acclamation. They couldn't have missed their timing this poorly, so the delay must have intentional. Could they have been worried a negative ad campaign on Ignatieff would have freaked the Liberal party out so much, before the convention, that the Grits would be forced to find someone else, someone possibly better, possibly impeccible, if the negative ad campaign was such an instant and undeniable success?

So they waited, but the Liberals climbed in the polls, passing the CPC nationally while also leaving them in a tough situation in Quebec. Maybe it was just an outlier, but poll after poll with the same trend: Liberals rising, Tories sinking.

The Oliphant Commission is now underway and their former leader might be getting into a lot of hot water, with no certainty of the outcome and who knows where the collateral damage will hit. The Tory War Room must be thinking: it's time to clog the airwaves and the print media with how horrible Ignatieff really is. How dare he think he can even suggest he wants to be Prime Minister? A Liberal leader become Prime Minister? He must be arrogant!

All of the above, plus the economy is not soaring back to the heights it once knew. The public is not seeing results in the promised "shovel ready" spending. The Harper Government needs to change the channel and fast.

So desperate does as desperate always has - he goes back to his prior ways of finding solace in what he knows best. So the Tories find themselves, once again, paying for negative ad campaigns, spinning tireless party rhetoric, and the underlying belief that no one, not even the Liberal party, deserves to form a government more than desperate Stephen Harper.

A plan for financial disaster vs proposals for the economy

I spot that the Tories need some help with their "plan". Here's my truth-as-it-is edit:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper understands didn't expect the global financial crisis. His plan for the way forward has been clear visionless and consistent: balanced budgets deficits, lower taxes, investments to create jobs lost and keeping inflation low.

This is in stark contrast to Stéphane Dion Jim Flaherty and Jack Layton Jack Layton, who have only just realized that the economy is an issue.

Dion wants to thought about imposing a massive carbon tax that will drive up the cost of everything and hurt families emissions. Layton will increase taxes on businesses and drive jobs out of Canada.

The Liberals and the NDP are both a vote for financial disaster recovery. They have no a plan. Both parties The Tories would gamble with Canadians’ hard-earned money for short term electoral gain.

For the past year and a half, the Harper Government has been implementing a real plan to protect our economy Harper's job. The Harper Government is not really working for all Canadians who have a job to keep, a mortgage to pay and a retirement to save for.

A Conservative government will not be raising taxes, only federal debt. We will not impose a carbon tax. We will not cancel planned tax reductions for business everyone. We will not keep our spending within our means. It is that simple.

The alternative is not a plan. It is just the consequence of complete panic competence, and this government will not panic do anything at a time of uncertainty.

The Trend

I believe the recent string of polls showing the Liberals tied, or at least with a lead, over the Conservatives and it is a distinguishing mark in the never-ending story of the Liberal party. I just read the Harris-Decima results here.

After only about six months since the 40th general election, after Harper almost winning an election outright, after Dion taking the Liberals to depths of history's worst, we are left in a position no one could have predicted the morning after.

Just for a refresher, let's look at the numbers

Election Post-Liberal
Day Convention
Conservatives 38% 29%
Liberals 26% 34%
NDP 18% 15%
Bloc 10% 9%
Green 7% 11%

One striking thing about the current position is that the Liberals are above the Conservatives with a lead that is above the margin of error.

Although, the Liberals might rise in popularity in Tory hot spots, they may still be far away from overturning the local encumbant. However, they are rising in spots like Quebec, Ontario and to a lesser extent, in B.C. These are all provinces where a slight change, even within the margin of error, could result in the changing of many seats in the House of Commons.

I think this means there is an opportunity here, for the Liberals, to start showing some swagger and push Harper on his own confidence motion strategy. There is nothing that the public appreciates quite like having the local bully stood up to. And considering the amount of confidence matters Harper has bullied his way through parliament, it will be a strong statement on his own character when he has to put his tail between his own legs and doing everything he can to avoid one. Or many.

Of course, this should be expected considered the results of polls showing the opposition with the popular lead. I just think the drastic change in the polling results since Election Day is a direct comment from the people that they think the Liberal party has made the right decisions recently and wants to support the party again. I think voters will smirk when they see Harper starting to lose at his own game, at his own tactics that managed to keep his own arse afloat. The writing is being written on the wall. And I think, the message is loud and clear.

Ignatieff Wins, Tories Pissy

Watched the speeches yesterday. I thought it was fairly well done considering we all knew the outcome. The debates about how the rules of debating should be changed to reflect the ability of certain groups to influence debate, was rather, well, useless, in my mind. I know it was so that some groups could still bring certain issues forward that may otherwise be ignored. But, if they were ignored en masse, how important of an issue could they really be? And is any of this really binding on the party leader, who is the eye of the storm when it comes to party policy?

So I read a few stories today, and the comments from the anti-Ignatieff campaign are in full force. The comments are trying to slam Iggy for living in the US, for being divinely chosen to govern, and for lack of policy.

I love how quickly these party hacks forget that Harper is in government and that Harper is the failure. The Tories used to pretend that they were the rightly chosen to govern when they were in opposition, even before an election to determine that. Harper and friends are pathetically voiceless when it comes to party policy - it is his royal highness Harper, who decides what it best for Canadians and how they should suffer for it. It is laughable how Harper says there is no need for an election now, and that all parties should work together to make parliament work.

How can parliament work, when one person decides to prorogue it to save only himself? How can parliment work when one man decides to call an "illegal" election in the fall?

I think these people who freak out over Ignatieff's leadership and his speech are true signs of the change that is in the air. It is a litmus test of how scared the opponents of the Liberals really are. I think, rightly, it is a sign that another election cannot happen soon enough.