The Trend

I believe the recent string of polls showing the Liberals tied, or at least with a lead, over the Conservatives and it is a distinguishing mark in the never-ending story of the Liberal party. I just read the Harris-Decima results here.

After only about six months since the 40th general election, after Harper almost winning an election outright, after Dion taking the Liberals to depths of history's worst, we are left in a position no one could have predicted the morning after.

Just for a refresher, let's look at the numbers

Election Post-Liberal
Day Convention
Conservatives 38% 29%
Liberals 26% 34%
NDP 18% 15%
Bloc 10% 9%
Green 7% 11%

One striking thing about the current position is that the Liberals are above the Conservatives with a lead that is above the margin of error.

Although, the Liberals might rise in popularity in Tory hot spots, they may still be far away from overturning the local encumbant. However, they are rising in spots like Quebec, Ontario and to a lesser extent, in B.C. These are all provinces where a slight change, even within the margin of error, could result in the changing of many seats in the House of Commons.

I think this means there is an opportunity here, for the Liberals, to start showing some swagger and push Harper on his own confidence motion strategy. There is nothing that the public appreciates quite like having the local bully stood up to. And considering the amount of confidence matters Harper has bullied his way through parliament, it will be a strong statement on his own character when he has to put his tail between his own legs and doing everything he can to avoid one. Or many.

Of course, this should be expected considered the results of polls showing the opposition with the popular lead. I just think the drastic change in the polling results since Election Day is a direct comment from the people that they think the Liberal party has made the right decisions recently and wants to support the party again. I think voters will smirk when they see Harper starting to lose at his own game, at his own tactics that managed to keep his own arse afloat. The writing is being written on the wall. And I think, the message is loud and clear.